Extreme Event Quantification for Fluids and Waves

Tobias Grafke, Warwick Mathematics Institute
Fluid flow equations


Rare and extreme events are notoriously hard to handle in any complex stochastic system: They are at the same time too strong to be ignored, as they have measurable impact on statistics, but nevertheless too rare to be easily observable in experiments or numerical simulation. This is a particular complication in fluid turbulence, with its large number of strongly coupled degrees of freedom. In this talk, I discuss rare events algorithms based on instanton calculus and large deviation theory in order to compute sharp limits for rare event probabilities, as well as their most likely pathway of occurrence. The efficiency of these methods is demonstrated by applying them to large spatially extended fluid and wave systems, such as Rogue Waves, Turbulence models, or the Navier-Stokes equation.

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